000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051619
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUN 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
.TROPICAL LOW PRES CENTER 1008 MB ESTIMATED NEAR 10N98.5W AT 
1200 UTC. CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED BELOW HAS INCREASED DURING THE 
PAST 6 HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE QUADRANT...AS SMALL LOW 
TO MID LEVEL CYCLONE LOCATED SOME 400 NM TO THE WNW HAS SHIFTED 
WWD ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE AND UPPER 
DIVERGENCE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. LOW 
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SE QUADRANT HAS LIKELY INCREASED TO 20-25 KT 
YIELDING THE INCREASED CONVECTION ACROSS NE PORTIONS. GLOBAL 
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE WNW OR NW 
NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NW BEYOND 36 HOURS...AND 
ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 
HOURS. THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO 
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS NRN NICARAGUA 
NEAR 12.5N87W TO 12N93W TO LOW PRES AT 10N98W TO 08N102W TO 
13N113W TO 06N131W THEN TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 116W 
AND 129W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG NOTED WITHIN 
270 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES 10N98W. 

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE JUST N OF E PAC AT 36N125.5W HAS LARGE 
AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH S TO SMALL MID LEVEL CYCLONE AT 
23N129W. SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS FROM 21N126W TO 
TO 08N130W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING 
FROM 30N120W TO 23N129W TO 22N135W. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ANCHORED BY 
SHARP ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EQUATOR ALONG 112W ACROSS ITCZ 
ALONG 113W TO NE MEXICO.   

LARGE TUTT LOW OVER WRN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS SW ACROSS 
SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO E PAC TO SMALL VORTEX DESCRIBED ABOVE NEAR 
12N105W. DEEP CONVECTIVE FLARE UP ACROSS FAR EPAC E OF 90W 
MAINTAIN DIVERGENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVEL ELYS PREVAILING 
ACROSS S AMERICA S OF 10N. 

...AT THE SURFACE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED N OF COLD FRONT BUT NW SWELLS YIELDING 
SEAS 8-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO E PAC N OF 25N E OF 
130W. PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED TO RELAX TODAY WITH FRESH NE TRADES 
DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE W OF 137W. BROAD ZONE OF SW 
TO W WINDS PREVAILS S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 120W...WITH WINDS 
GENERALLY 10-15 KT.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL MOVE INTO WATERS S 
OF 10N E OF 125W ON MON.
 
GAP WINDS...FRESH N BREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS CHIVELA PASS INTO AND 
DOWNWIND OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ASSOCIATED WITH PRES GRADIENT 
CAUSED BY LOW PRES AT 10N98.5W. DURATION AND STRENGTH OF EVENT 
HEAVILY DEPENDENT OF INTENSITY AND TRACK OF LOW PRES.  

$$
STRIPLING