000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050356 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUN 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... .A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MEANDERING NEAR 10.5N98W WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTER PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. NE TO E WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE... WITH SEAS ESTIMATED AT 6 TO 8 FT PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SW SWELL COMPONENT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N99W TO 11N96W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NW TO NEAR 11N100W SUN EVENING WITH MINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPING TO ABOUT 1006 MB. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE NW AND 240 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLES...WITH POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N86W TO THE SURFACE LOW AT 10.5N98W..WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING W THROUGH ANOTHER CYCLONIC SWIRL ANALYZED AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT 11N114W 1010 MB... WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 05N139W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES W BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS...FROM 04N TO CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN 81W AND 86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW AT 11N114W... ROUGHLY FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 109W AND 117W. LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 04N96W TO 04N103W TO 11N115W TO BEYOND 03N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 36N127W WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING SE AROUND THE CYCLONE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. CURRENTLY A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N126W TO 18N121W WITH AND A SECOND UPPER SHORTWAVE NOTED TO THE N OF 14N ALONG 131W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N117W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A SHARP CREST OVER N CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AT 32N108W. A THIN BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGHS...FANNING OUT OVER CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS W OF THE AREA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E OVER THE DEEP TROPICS ALONG 06N140W TO 07N131W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ONLY ENHANCING WEAK SHOWERS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS W OF 127W. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES W ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 25N93W THEN TURNING SW ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO ALONG 18N98W AND INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE E PACIFIC AT 14N104W...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING S ACROSS THE EQUATOR AT 94W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION NEAR 10N115W REMAINS IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 104W AND 121W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY W OF 102W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST NEAR 15N98W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL SURFACE LOW AT 10.5N98W IS SPREADING NE ACROSS THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY CONVECTION OVER THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SOME OF THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 80W AND 90W...AND SOME MOISTURE ALSO SPREADS NE AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N121W TO 25N130W TO 26N140W WITH A W TO E RIDGE ALONG 20N TO THE W OF 112W. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 KT ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. NE TRADES ARE ALSO ENHANCED S OF THE RIDGE WITHIN THE AREA FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN 134W AND 140W. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED RELAX TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE TRADES AT 15 TO 20 KT PERSISTING FROM 08N TO 14N W OF 134W BY EARLY SUN EVENING. A NEW BATCH OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT...WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 127W AND 92W BY MON. GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT EARLY SUN. THE DURATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS EVENT IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT OF THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR 10.5N98W. $$ NELSON