000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N115W WHERE THE ITCZ 
AXIS BEGINS AND CONTINUES SW TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED TO THE N OF 03N BETWEEN 80W 
AND 90W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
07N111W TO 11N116W TO 07N126W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS NEARLY CUT OFF OVER THE PACIFIC JUST W OF 
THE OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BORDER WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE 
TROUGHS ROTATING SE AROUND THE CYCLONE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
CURRENTLY AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N122W TO 21N130W TO 
13N135W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 14N114W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A SHARP CREST OVER N CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AT 
27N106W. AN EVAPORATING BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS STILL OBSERVED 
JUST N OF THE RIDGE CREST...PRECEDING THE UPPER TROUGH...ACROSS 
WESTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO EVENTUALLY FANNING OUT 
ACROSS THE CONUS OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE 
ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IS SPREADING NE ACROSS 
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. A THIRD AREA OF UPPER MOISTURE CONTINUES 
TO SPREAD E OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 15N TO 26N W OF 134W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS JUST W OF THE AREA AT 06N144W WITH AN 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N TO THE W 
OF 134W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 134W TO 147W...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE 
ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 133W AND 139W. 

AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES W ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH AN 
UPPER CYCLONE AT 27N96W THEN TURNING SW ACROSS CENTRAL OLD 
MEXICO ALONG 19N97W AND INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE E PACIFIC 
AT 13N106W...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING SW THROUGH ANOTHER 
UPPER CYCLONE AT 07N112W...THEN ACROSS THE EQUATOR AT 117W.  
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED NEAR THE UPPER CYCLONE AT 07N112W. THE 
RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION...AND PREVIOUSLY 
DESCRIBED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...SEEMS TO REMAIN IN THE 
AREA BOUNDED BY 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 103W AND 125W. OTHERWISE THE 
UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY W OF 104W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 
A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A GENTLE CREST ALONG 100W BETWEEN 15N AND 
19N. AT THE LOW LEVELS A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 11N97W TO 
15N97W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 101W.
SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING NE ACROSS THE SW 
MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 101W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THE 
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE S OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH. SOME OF THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS 
ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 80W AND 92W...AND SOME 
MOISTURE ALSO SPREADS NE AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA THEN TURNING E INTO A DISTURBANCE S OF JAMAICA. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N142W TO 
16N109W. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PORTION ALONG 
33N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. THE GRADIENT IS STILL SUPPORTING 
NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 27N E OF 
120W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...PER AN 18 UTC SHIP 
REPORT. NE TRADES ARE ALSO ENHANCED S OF THE RIDGE WITHIN THE 
AREA FROM 08N TO 25N BETWEEN 123W AND 140W. THE GRADIENT IS 
EXPECTED RELAX TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 
NE TRADES AT 15 TO 20 KT PERSISTING NEAR 13N137W BY LATE SAT. 
SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE STILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 
120W AND MIXED N SWELL IS DOMINATE OVER THE AREA W OF 120W. A 
NEW BATCH OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS 
TO 8 FT...WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS S OF 07N E OF 125W BY EARLY 
SUN.
 
GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUNRISE SAT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 
KT BY LATE SAT. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO SURGE 
S INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC JUST BEFORE SUNRISE SUN AND 
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 
KT SUN NIGHT. 

$$
NELSON