000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031557
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUN 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH IS ANCHORED ON THE MONSOONAL GYRE ACROSS THE SW 
CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS CENTRAL COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83.5W 
TO 09N87W TO 10N102W TO NEAR 07N124W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS... 
EXTENDING TO 06N128W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED S OF AXIS TO 03N E OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
110W AND 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM 
S OF AXIS W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX 
WELL N OF BASIN TO 32N123W TO 140N120W. A SHARP AND NARROW 
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ANCHORED ON A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC GYRE NEAR  
13N116W EXTENDING NE TO W CENTRAL MEXICO...AND CRESTING INTO 
EXTREME SW TEXAS. SHARP TROUGH CUTS SW FROM W GULF OF MEXICO TO 
FILLING MID LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 12N107W. TO THE E AND SE 
OF THIS TROUGH UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE PULSING AND 
ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS NRN S AMERICA...CENTRAL AND SW 
CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE FAR TROPICAL EPAC.  

...AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1030 MB AT 33N152W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 16N114W.  
MODEL GUIDANCE RETREATS HIGH PRES TO THE NW NEXT 24 HOURS AS 
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NE PAC DIGS SLIGHTLY SE. THIS TO 
ALLOW PRESENT FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE ALONG W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT WITHIN NEXT 24 HR...WHILE A 
COLD FRONT SINKS INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FRESH NE TRADES W 
OF 125W WILL ALSO SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE AND SHIFT SW THROUGH 
SAT MORNING THEN DROP BELOW 20 KT BY LATE SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH 
SOME ASSOCIATED NE SWELL MIGHT LINGER INTO SUN TO MAINTAIN SEAS 
AT 8-9 FT.

E OF 110W...AN ELONGATED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION PERSISTS...AND 
REMAINS ANCHORED ON THE SW CARIBBEAN MONSOON GYRE CURRENTLY 
DOMINATING THE REGION. THE MONSOONAL GYRE IN THE SW CARIB IS 
FORECAST TO DRIFT N DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL PULL E 
PORTIONS OF THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH N INTO CENTRAL 
AMERICA...BRINGING WITH IT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED 
IN THE SW TO W LLVL FLOW.
 
GAP WINDS...STRONG N BREEZE STILL REMAIN ACROSS CHIVELA PASS AND 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THEN WEAKENS DOWNSTREAM AS NELY LLVL FLOW 
CONTINUES TO AID IN THE ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION S OF THIS 
AREA ALONG 97/98W. WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC WILL PULSE UP AND 
DOWN DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 
20-25 KT SUN AS THE SW CARIB MONSOON GYRE EXTENDS INTO THE 
YUCATAN AND FAR SW GULF. 

A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD SRN HEMI SW SWELL WILL MOVE ACROSS 
THE EQUATOR SAT AND RAISE SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FT AND GREATER S OF 
05N ON SUNDAY.

$$
STRIPLING