000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030956
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUN 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N93W TO 08N120W.  ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 08N120W TO 05N132W TO 06N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS E OF 102W AND WITHIN 180 
S AND 75 NM N OF AXIS FROM 102 TO 119W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX 
WELL N OF BASIN TO 32N122W TO 10N122W.  NARROW DOWNSTREAM RIDGE 
ANCHORED WITH ANTICYCLONIC GYRE AT 12N113W HAS CREST EXTENDING 
INTO WESTERN TEXAS MAINTAIN DRY AIR MASS W OF 120W DUE TO 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  SHARP TROUGH CUT SW FROM SOUTH 
CENTRAL MEXICO TO 11N105W ADVECT SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE DEBRIS 
FROM ITCZ AND MONSOONAL TROUGH CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL AMERICA 
BUT APPARENTLY WITHOUT MUCH SIGNIFICANT EFFECT N OF NICARAGUA.  
SECOND ANTICYCLONE...THIS ONE OVER NW COLOMBIA...MAINTAIN STEADY 
NE FLOW AND MODERATE DIVERGING FLOW OVER MONSOONAL TROUGH E OF 
102W WITH SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG TROUGH AXIS.  NO SIGNS 
OF TROPICAL ORGANIZATION NOTED OR EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS IN THESE FEATURES.  

...AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1032 MB AT 32N150W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 17N118W.  
MODEL GUIDANCE RETREATS HIGH PRES NW ALLOWING PRESENT FRESH TO 
STRONG NW BREEZE ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO DIMINISH 
BELOW 20 KT WITHIN NEXT 24 HR.  SIMILARLY...FRESH NE TRADES W OF 
125W DROP BELOW 20 KT BY LATE SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME 8-9 FT 
SWELL MIGHT LINGER SLIGHTLY LONGER.
 
GAP WINDS...STRONG N BREEZE STILL REMAIN ACROSS CHIVELA PASS AND 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN SOUTHERN MEXICO WINDS.  WINDS EXPECTED TO 
BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE BY SAT BUT RETURN SUN AS LOW 
PRES SURFACE TROUGH IN NW CARIBBEAN STRENGTHEN.  

QUICKLY SUBSIDING CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL EXPECTED TO REACH 
UNDER 8 FT BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  

$$
WALLY BARNES