000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030349
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUN 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N110W TO 08N119W. A 
LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 99W FROM 08N TO 15N WITH SEVERAL 
INTERMITTENT CYCLONIC SWIRLS NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 08N119W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
180 NM OF 06N83W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 10N93W AND 12N98W AND 
06N104W AND 09N112W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES S INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N125W TO 15N128W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED AT 15N125W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A SHARP CREST 
AT 24N108W. AN EVAPORATING BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE PRECEDES THE 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND 
NORTHERN OLD MEXICO...EVENTUALLY FEEDING INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE 
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. A SECOND BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS 
ROTATING E THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING E OVER THE DISCUSSION 
AREA FROM 17N TO 25N W OF 135W.

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E OVER THE TROPICS S OF 10N W OF 131W. 
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ W OF THE AREA BETWEEN 140W AND 153W...WITH SOME OF THE 
DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA NEAR 05N139W. THE UPPER 
FLOW IS ALSO SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT OVER THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 
126W...AND ENHANCED THE SMALL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY 
DESCRIBED...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED S OVER THE AREA 
FROM 11N TO 01N BETWEEN 110W AND 122W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER 
LEVELS APPEAR DRY W OF 110W.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS BUILDING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN OLD MEXICO INTO 
AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 10N103W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE E 
SEMICIRCLE OF THIS CYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE LOW 
LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N TO 15N 
ALONG 99W. 
   
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 
A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A CREST OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR 11N93W. 
SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED 
CONVECTION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ADVECTED S ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 80W AND 102W...AND SOME MOISTURE ALSO SPREADS NE 
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THEN TURNING E 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N142W TO 17N105W. THE 
GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT OVER 
THE WATERS N OF 23N E OF 125W. NE TRADES ARE ALSO ENHANCED S OF 
THE RIDGE WITHIN THE AREA FROM 08N TO 26N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W. 
THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED RELAX ON FRI WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 
NE TRADES AT 15 TO 20 KT PERSISTING ONLY NEAR 12N137W BY LATE 
SAT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE STILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA 
E OF 120W BUT NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE 
AREA BECOMING DOMINATE OVER THE AREA E OF 115W BY LATE FRI AS 
THE S SWELLS SUBSIDE.
 
GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO 
SURGE THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUNRISE FRI...THEN DIMINISH TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT BY LATE FRI. THE ASSOCIATED NE SWELLS WITH 
CONTINUE TO MIX WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS THROUGH FRI. 
BOTH N AND S SWELL COMPONENTS WILL DISSIPATE WITH COMBINED SEAS 
SUBSIDING TO THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE OVER THE TROPICS E OF 110W ON 
SAT.  

$$
NELSON