000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUN 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 
11.5N82W TO 09N83W TO 10N101W TO 10N110W TO 08N118W...WHERE THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE THEN BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 
06N122W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED N OF 03.5N E OF 87W...AS WELL AS N OF 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 
102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 
150 NM N AND 270 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BISECTS THE AREA FROM 00N150W TO 
27N107W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY 
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW OF THE U.S. SWD TO 23N127W DIGS SE 
ALONG 122W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO AND CONTINUES WEAKLY ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE 
EPAC NEAR 13N106W. SE OF THIS...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W TO W-NW 
ACROSS FAR NRN S AMERICA AND THE SE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA TO 12N90W. CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE 
MONSOONAL CIRCULATION ACROSS THE FAR EPAC WILL COMBINE WITH A SW 
MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER 
RIDGING ACROSS THE EPAC E OF 98W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC NEAR 34N146W TO 15N106W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ALONG THE W COAST OF N AMERICA IS SUPPORTING N-NW WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT OVER THE WATERS N OF 24N E OF 122W. THE PRES GRADIENT IS 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND FRI AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES SE 
THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE W COAST UPPER TROUGH...SUPPORTING A 
WEAK COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE...NORTHEAST 
TRADES ARE ALSO BEING ENHANCED FROM 08N TO 22N FROM 133W TO 
BEYOND 150W...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT THEN 
THE AREA WILL SHRINK NORTHWARD FRI AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

THE EPAC MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED ON A LOW TO MID LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N81W...WITH A 
NARROW MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING SW THEN W AS NOTED 
ABOVE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 06N AND 12N. SW TO W WINDS AT 15 TO 20 
KT ARE OCCURRING S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 95W. LONG 
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE AFFECTING THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA 
WATERS AND PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT S OF 20N AND E OF 
110W. THE SW TO W WINDS OCCURRING S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE 
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW 
PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DRIFT N TO NW AND ATTEMPTS TO 
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
 
GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE TO 
SURGE THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 
20 KT BY FRI EVENING.

$$
STRIPLING