000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUN 2 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 12N86W TO 10N91W TO 12N102W TO 
09N115W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
09N115W TO 06N123W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 85W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BISECTS THE AREA FROM 25N108W SW TO 
07N140W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE E AS 
THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG 125W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 
A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO 12N89W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION 
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BEING ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 80W AND 100W.

A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO 14N104W. THE GRADIENT 
IS SUPPORTING N-NW WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N E OF 
120W. PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN FURTHER WITH WINDS 
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 27N WITHIN 
90 NM BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AND 
FRI. NORTHEAST TRADES ARE ALSO BEING ENHANCED S OF THE RIDGE 
WITHIN THE AREA FROM 08N TO 23N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W...WITH 
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT THEN THE AREA WILL SHRINK 
NORTHWARD FRI AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

S-SW MONSOON WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 78W AND 95W...WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN S SWELL. SOUTHERLY 
SWELLS ARE ALSO NOTED ELSEWHERE S OF 23N E OF 120W RESULTING IN 
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. S-SW WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE TO 
SURGE THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY LATE FRI.

$$
MUNDELL