000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 2 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 10N91W TO 11N104W TO 
09N110W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
09N110W TO 05N123W TO 07N132W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 13N E OF 
109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF THE CONUS CONTINUES
S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N126W TO 23N131W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 18N115W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 
11N133W...AND A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS NE TO BEYOND 31N107W MERGING 
WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE DOMINATING CENTRAL N AMERICA. A NARROW 
BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL 
PACIFIC...STREAMS E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG THE NW 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...TURNING N AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...THEN FANNING OUT 
OVER THE ENTIRE SW CONUS. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 110W AND 127W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE NOTED FROM 02N TO 
ALONG 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 122W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE E AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG 125W 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 12N89W. SOME OF DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTION WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH IS ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 80W AND 
104W...AND SOME MOISTURE ALSO SPREADS NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 
THEN TURNING E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO 14N104W. THE 
GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT OVER 
THE WATERS N OF 25N E OF 120W. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO 
FURTHER TIGHTEN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT OVER THE 
PACIFIC WATERS N OF 27N WITHIN 90 NM BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
ON THU...THEN DIMINISHING THU NIGHT AND FRI. NORTHEAST TRADES 
ARE ALSO ENHANCED S OF THE RIDGE WITHIN THE AREA FROM 08N TO 23N 
BETWEEN 127W AND 140W...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH 
THU...THEN THE AREA WILL SHRINK SOME N FRI AS THE GRADIENT 
WEAKENS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 
78W AND 95W...WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN S SWELL. THESE SOUTHERLY 
SWELLS ARE ALSO NOTED ELSEWHERE S OF 22N E OF 125W RESULTING IN 
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE TO 
SURGE THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THU...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 
KT BY LATE FRI.  

$$
NELSON