000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH ...

.THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 10N91W TO 11N104W TO 
09N110W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
09N110W TO 05N123W TO 07N132W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 02N TO 13N BETWEEN 
80W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM 
S OF INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 113W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF THE CONUS 
CONTINUES S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N125W TO 24N125W. AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 16N122W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING 
SW TO 10N137W...AND A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS NE TO BEYOND 30N107W 
MERGING WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES CENTRAL N AMERICA. 
A NARROW BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING IN THE TROPICAL 
CENTRAL PACIFIC...STREAMS E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG THE 
NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...TURNING NE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...THEN FANNING OUT 
OVER THE ENTIRE SW CONUS. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 110W AND 126W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE NOTED FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO ALONG 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. THE NORTHERN PORTION 
OF THE RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE E AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 14N85W. SOME OF DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTION WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH IS ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 80W AND 
105W...AND SOME MOISTURE ALSO SPREADS NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 
THEN TURNING E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO 14N104W. THE 
GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT OVER 
THE WATERS N OF 25N E OF 120W. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO 
FURTHER TIGHTEN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT OVER THE 
PACIFIC WATERS N OF 27N WITHIN 90 NM BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
ON THU...THEN DIMINISH SOME ON FRI. NORTHEAST TRADES ARE ALSO 
ENHANCED S OF THE RIDGE WITHIN THE AREA FROM 08N TO 23N BETWEEN 
127W AND 140W...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THU...THEN 
THE AREA WILL SHRINK SOME N FRI AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 
78W AND 95W...WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN S SWELL. THESE SOUTHERLY 
SWELLS ARE ALSO NOTED ELSEWHERE S OF 22N E OF 125W RESULTING IN 
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE TO 
SURGE THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THU...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH. 

$$
NELSON