000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011524
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0730 UTC.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH ...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N86W TO 11N105W TO 07N116W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N116W TO 
04N123W TO 07N133W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH 
AXIS E OF 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF MONSOON TROUGH AND INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 
115W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 36N146W EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO 
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 32N130W TO 16N110W. THE HIGH WILL 
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BEARS 
DOWN ON IT FROM THE NE. FRESH NW WINDS PERSIST OFF THE COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...BUT THEY WILL BECOME STRONG TO NEAR GALE 
THERE BY THU MORNING WITH THE AREA OF FRESH WINDS EXTENDING TO 
125W ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BAJA. AS THE HIGH 
WEAKENS...LOOK FOR THIS AREA TO SHRINK AND WINDS TO DIMINISH 
MAINLY TO 20 KT. 

THE 0632 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE NE TRADE WINDS ARE CONFINED W 
OF 130W. FRESH TRADES WILL EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD BY THU AND BEGIN 
TO SHRINK IN AREA BY FRI MORNING...UNDULATING WITH THE STRENGTH 
OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.

SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW IS STRONGEST FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 
86W AND 97W ACCORDING TO AN ASCAT PASS AT 0300 UTC. SHIP 3FMH7 
CONFIRMS 20 KT WINDS HERE AND 8 FT SEAS. THIS AREA OF 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E AND DIMINISH 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST 
AREA IS CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 
100W. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH 
SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 02N TO 06N E OF 92W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS ACTING TO FUNNEL 
WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
THE 0300 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 30 KT WINDS IN THE GULF. THESE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD S AND CONTINUE AT THAT INTENSITY 
INTO THU BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. BRIEF GALE FORCE WINDS 
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DUE TO DIURNAL NEAR-SHORE FUNNELING 
EFFECTS.

LARGE LONG PERIOD S SWELLS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN E 
OF 125W. SEAS GENERATED BY THIS CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL SHOULD 
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY WITH HIGH SURF AND RELATED COASTAL 
HAZARDS ABATING.

$$
SCHAUER