000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010932
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUN 1 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W TO 12N105W TO 08N116W TO 06N125W TO 
07N132W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
N OF 03N E OF 92W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES RIDGE IS BUILDING BACK ALONG 29-30N IN NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0500 UTC SHOWED 
MODERATE 10-15 KT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA N OF 10N E OF 125W 
EXCEPT FOR N WINDS INTENSIFYING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
MODERATE TO FRESH 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS WERE FOUND FROM 08N TO 23N
W OF 130W ON THE 0630 UTC SCAT PASS. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ON 
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRES RIDGE 
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT 
W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND TO AROUND 20 KT W OF 130W.

BROADLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION 
E OF 105W. AT LOW LEVELS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS WELL ESTABLISHED 
E OF 110W...WITH A WEAK 1011 MB CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACTING TO 
ANCHOR THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 12N106W. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS 
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE AREA E OF 110W TO BE FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS. EXPECT A STRONGER LOW PRES 
TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE 
W-SW WIND FLOW INTO THE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY SPIN UP DISTINCT 
TROPICAL LOWS THAT WILL ACT TO FOCUS VORTICITY WITHIN THE TROUGH.

A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS ACTING TO FUNNEL 
WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO 25-30 KT IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THU. WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT BRIEF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
POSSIBLE AT TIMES DUE TO DIURNAL NEAR-SHORE FUNNELING EFFECTS.

LARGE LONG PERIOD S SWELLS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN 
AND SEAS GENERATING BY THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE TODAY WITH HIGH SURF AND RELATED COASTAL HAZARDS ABATING.

$$
MUNDELL