000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010341 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED JUN 1 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N86W TO 10N90W TO 13N97W TO 06N120W TO 07N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N86W TO 14N106W. ...DISCUSSION... A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A DEEP LAYERED LOW WELL N OF THE AREA OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TO AN UPPER LOW NE OF HAWAII BUT W OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 22N152W. WHILE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING HAS FULLY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND REACH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 13N ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 38N147W WITH A RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH ALONG 31N135W TO 18N110W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 34N148W. NE TRADE WINDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED W OF 132W WILL EXPAND EASTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH SLIDING SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION...THE FRESH NW TO N WINDS SEEN CLOSE TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST THIS EVENING WILL EXPAND TO THE W AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NE WATERS BY FRIDAY. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REGION DOMINATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 115W. A BAND OF CIRRUS OVERLAYS THE LOWER CLOUDS WITHIN 240 NM OF A LINE FROM 19N140W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST NEAR 30N. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED S OF 15N E OF 110W...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION FOUND OVER AND TO THE SE OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING N OF 03N E OF 86W IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE N ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A POSITIVELY TILTED BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EASTERLY FLOW TO THE S FOUND ON THE N SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE FOUND BY THE 31/1604 UTC ASCAT PASS IN THE AREA FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 100W. BUOY 43301 AND THE SHIP WITH CALL SIGN 3FMH7 CO-LOCATED NEAR 08N95W REPORTED WEST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT. THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS DO NOT CAPTURE THE CURRENT WIND FIELD SUFFICIENTLY COMPARED TO THESE OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER...THEY DO SUGGEST A GENERAL REDUCTION IN THE SIZE AND GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGE LONG PERIOD S SWELLS WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN E OF 132W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY. UNUSUALLY HIGH BREAKERS AND HEAVY SURF WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT W AND START TO FUNNEL WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME STRONG IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY WED MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT BRIEF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. $$ HUFFMAN