000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312121 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE MAY 31 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM 10N86W TO 10N90W TO 14N97W A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N109W THEN TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 102W. ...DISCUSSION... A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A DEEP LAYERED LOW WELL N OF THE AREA OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TO AN UPPER LOW NE OF HAWAII BUT W OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 23N151W. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS WEAKENING OVER THE AREA N OF 27N W OF 126W. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...BUT NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND REACH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT STEMS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 38N148W AND EXTENDS SE OF THE FRONT FROM 26N127W TO 15N110W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES AND THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO THE N MOVES EASTWARD. NE TRADE WINDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED W OF 132W WILL EXPAND EASTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. IN ADDITION...THE FRESH NW TO N WINDS SEEN CLOSE TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST TODAY WILL EXPAND TO THE W AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NE WATERS BY THURSDAY. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REGION DOMINATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 115W. A BAND OF CIRRUS OVERLAYS THE LOWER CLOUDS WITHIN 240 NM OF A LINE FROM 20N140W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST NEAR 30N. THIS CIRRUS IS THE RESULT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE TROPICS S OF HAWAII BY A 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED S OF 15N AND E OF 120W...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION FOUND S OF PANAMA. THIS SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING N OF 03N E OF 87W IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE N ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A POSITIVELY TILTED BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EASTERLY FLOW TO THE S FOUND ON THE N SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE FOUND BY THE 31/1604 UTC ASCAT PASS IN THE AREA FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 103W. BUOY 43301 LOCATED NEAR 08N95W REPORTED W AT 20 KT AT . THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS DO NOT CAPTURE THE CURRENT WIND FIELD SUFFICIENTLY COMPARED TO THESE OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER...THEY DO SUGGEST A GENERAL REDUCTION IN THE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ALSO SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE REASONABLY WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 09N109W...WITH MOST OF THE MODELS PLACING THE SYSTEM TOO FAR TO THE E. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW. LARGE LONG PERIOD S SWELLS WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN E OF 132W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THURSDAY. UNUSUALLY HIGH BREAKERS AND HEAVY SURF WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT W AND START TO FUNNEL WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME STRONG IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY WED MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT BRIEF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. $$ HUFFMAN