000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 31 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 08.5N83W TO 08N86W TO 11N100W TO LOW PRES 
1007 MB NEAR 10N106W TO 07N123W TO 07N140W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES 1034 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF BASIN NEAR 39N148W HAS 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS MAINTAINING FRESH 
NW TO N WINDS N OF 26N E OF 119W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA 
FROM 13N TO 25N W OF 135W. 

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE 1009 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 10N106W. 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE AROUND THE LOW...AND IS NOW 
CONFINED TO THE NW QUADRANT. 

LARGE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT CONTINUE 
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY SUBSIDING 
THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD. STILL...UNUSUALLY HIGH BREAKERS 
AND HEAVY SURF IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT W. THE 
CORRESPONDING NE WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL START 
TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...STRONG N WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TUE NIGHT...WITH 
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT-LIVED NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.   

$$
AL