000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 08.5N83W TO 08N86W TO 11N97W TO  LOW PRES 
1008 MB NEAR 10N106W TO 07N140W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
83W AND 100W. 


...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES 1034 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF BASIN NEAR 39N149W HAS 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 17N107W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS MAINTAINING FRESH 
NW TO N WINDS N OF 23N BETWEEN 112W AND 123W AS INDICATED BY THE 
LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH 
TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA N OF 15N AS 
INDICATED BY THE LATEST WINDSAT PASS. 

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE 1008 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 10N106W. 
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CONDITIONS 
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW. THE 
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED UPPER DIVERGENCE AROUND THE LOW AND S 
OF THE ITCZ AS MENTIONED ABOVE IS LEADING TO RELATIVELY LOWER 
PRESSURES WHICH IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 04N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 97W AND 114W.

LARGE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT CONTINUE 
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY SUBSIDING 
THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD. STILL...UNUSUALLY HIGH BREAKERS 
AND HEAVY SURF IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT W. THE 
CORRESPONDING NE WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL START 
TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...STRONG N WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TUE NIGHT...WITH 
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT-LIVED NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.   

$$
AL