000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ FROM 07N78W TO 11N97W TO 07N104W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS E OF 95W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 104W TO 116W.


...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL E-W RIDGE ALONG 08N-10N LOSING ITS GRIP ON E PAC E 
OF 98W AS DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS INTO BASIN FROM 08N83W TO 
DEVELOPING CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 04N81W.  REMAINDER OF RIDGE WITH 
ANTICYCLONES AT 12N120W AND 09N94W HAVE WEAK SHALLOW TROUGH IN 
BETWEEN THAT PROVIDE MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE 
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG SURFACE LOW 
PRES AT 11N103W.  WHILE DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITHIN 
LAST 24 HRS...NO TROPICAL ORGANIZATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM 
EVEN UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  WINDS ALOFT 
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ADVERSE AS AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW UPPER 
TROUGH DIGS S BRINGING STRONGER SHEAR.   

...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
BROAD HIGH PRES CENTER 1036 MB WELL NW OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTEND 
SE TO 20N115W.  PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH OVER BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND LOWER PRES ALONG ITCZ MAINTAIN FRESH NW TO N WIND 
N OF 24N BETWEEN 110W AND 124W...BUT QUICKLY DIMINISHING IN 
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE AND FRESH NE WIND N OF 15N W OF 124W AS  
INDICATED BY MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.

AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 11N103W EXPECTED TO 
MAINTAIN PRESENT LEVEL OF CONVECTION FOR NEXT 24 HRS...BUT 
SLOWLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

LARGE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT CONTINUE 
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY SUBSIDING 
THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  STILL...UNUSUALLY HIGH BREAKERS 
AND HEAVY SURF IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

SURFACE TROUGH ALONG IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN TIGHTENS PRES GRADIENT 
ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA INCREASING N WINDS OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE 
AND SPILLING INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD.  
STRONG N BREEZE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED BUT COULD REACH NEAR 
GALE FORCE FOR VERY BRIEF MOMENTS.   

$$
WALLY BARNES