000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291553
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 12N97W TO 08N129W TO 06N136W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 92W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N AND 180 NM S 
OF AXIS FROM 96W TO 106W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CHARACTERIZED BY EXPANDING E-W RIDGE 8-10N THROUGH 
ALMOST ENTIRE E PAC SUSTAINED BY THREE MAIN ANTICYCLONES...ONE  
AT 08N132W...ANOTHER AT 08N112W AND A THIRD AT 08N856W.  TWO 
WEAK SHALLOW TROUGHS NOTED BETWEEN ANTICYCLONES.  MODERATE TO 
STRONG DIVERGENT FLOW BETWEEN EASTERNMOST GYRE AND TROUGH 
ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP CONVECTION RIGHT 
ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 15N94W TO 11N98W.  NO TROPICAL 
ORGANIZATION ACTUALLY NOTED AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED 
TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AFTER 48 HRS...SO NO INTENSIFICATION IS 
FORECAST FOR TROUGH. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1034 MB WELL NW OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE 
TO 20N120W.  THERMAL TROUGH OVER TIGHTENS PRES GRADIENT WITH 
RIDGE INCREASING WINDS ALONG CALIFORNIA W COAST N OF 32N TO GALE 
AND QUITE STRONG NW TO N BREEZE REACHING S TO 27N W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA.  SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE TRADES W OF 125W DIMINISHES 
AS RIDGE EDGE NE.

THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN BASIN IS LARGE AREA OF LARGE 
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL PROPAGATING NE TO EVENTUALLY BUILD SEAS 
OVER THE ENTIRE E PAC TO 8-12 FT.  UNUSUALLY HIGH BREAKERS AND 
HEAVY SURF EXPECTED ACROSS ENTIRE CENTRAL AMERICA PAC COAST.

$$
WALLY BARNES