000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N100W TO 09N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 91W AND 99W...AND  
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS 24-48 HOURS. DEEP LOW PRES TROUGH OVER MEXICAN PLATEAU 
ANCHORED BY 993 MB LOW NEAR 26N103W AND HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING
E ALONG 30N FROM 1033 MB HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ENHANCING BOTH NW WINDS ALONG THE WEST 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND E-NE TRADE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE IN 
NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. BUT BY 
MON NIGHT A LOW PRES TROUGH APPROACHING CALIFORNIA FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NE PORTION
ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO START TO SUBSIDE W OF BAJA AND FURTHER
SW IN THE TRADE WIND BELT.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MARINE FEATURE THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WILL BE 
LARGE LONG-PERIOD S SWELL THAT CONTINUES TO SWEEP INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 13 FT S 
OF 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W BY MON MORNING. 9-10 FT LONG PERIOD 
18-20 SEC WAVES EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG THE COASTS OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND MEXICO MON AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE UNUSUALLY HIGH 
SURF AND VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WITHIN THE LITTORAL ZONE... 
INCLUDING HAZARDOUS SURF 15-20 FT AND RIP CURRENTS. SURF HAZARDS 
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY BY WED OR WED NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL