000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282113
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 10N85W TO 12N100W TO 10N120W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 
12N BETWEEN 92W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 27N145W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH 
CLOUD E OF THE CENTER FROM 15N-25N W OF 125W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH IS CENTERED S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 18N110W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER ALL OF MEXICO.

...AT THE SURFACE...
A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ S OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 11N95W. THE LOW IS UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE DIVERGING FLOW. NO 
SIGN OF TROPICAL ORGANIZATION IS NOTED AND MODEL GUIDANCE DO NOT 
FAVOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CONVECTION 
CONTINUES TO BE CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 
TO 140W WITH MOST CONVECTION E OF 112W. A LOOK AT THE GFS 
PRECIPITABLE WATER MODEL SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE 
AREA AT 36N148W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE TO THE S TIP BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AT 20N110W. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXITS 
ALONG THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA AND THE N BAJA CALIFORNIA. A 
GALE IS N OF THE AREA ALONG THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA. 20-25 KT 
WINDS AND 10-12 FT NW SEA SWELL ARE ALSO MOVING S ALONG THE W 
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. FRESH NE TRADES PERSIST N OF 12N W OF 
130W.

LARGE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW LONG PERIOD SWELL ARE S OF 12N W OF 
92W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE N TO 20N 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND BUILD SEAS TO 12 FT IN MIXED SW AND 
NW SWELL...EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.

$$
FORMOSA