000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 08N83W TO 12N93W TO 10N114W TO 06N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 112W AND W OF 
124W. 

...DISCUSSION...
NOW THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC VORTEX 
RETREATED TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF BASIN...COMPLEX RIDGE SET UP  
COVER ENTIRE BASIN.  MAIN RIDGE ANCHOR IS AT 13N102W WITH 
SECONDARY ONE AT 06N78W WITH SHALLOW BUT INCREASINGLY DEEPENING 
TROUGH FROM GUATEMALA TO 10N91W.  STRONG CONVERGING MASS ALOFT 
MAINTAIN VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR ACROSS NE CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL 
AMERICA N OF GUATEMALA...MEXICO AND E PAC N OF 15N E OF 115W.  
SIMULTANEOUSLY RIDGE ALSO PROMOTES DIVERGING FLOW OVER EASTERN 
PORTION OF ITCZ ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 
112W.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB WELL NW OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 
20N115W.  RIDGE PROMPTS FRESH NE TRADES W OF 130W FROM 10N TO 
24N AND FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST.
ADDITIONALLY...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 30N ALONG W 
COAST OF CALIFORNIA.  NW SWELL GENERATED BY GALE N OF AREA 
SPREAD INTO BASIN WITH SEAS TO 12 FT EXPECTED N OF 20N E OF 
130W. 

SHORT WEAK TROUGH S OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC UNDER FAVORABLE 
ENVIRON ALOFT WITH LOW WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE DIVERGING FLOW 
HAS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ON ITS SE QUADRANT.  NO SIGNS OF 
TROPICAL ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN NOTED AND MODEL GUIDANCE DO NOT 
SEEM TO FAVOR ANY DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW LONG PERIOD SWELL BUILD SEAS TO 12 FT WITHIN 
NEXT TWO DAYS S OF 10N.  WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE EVENTUALLY SHOW 
MOST OF E PAC BASIN WITH SEAS 8-12 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL 
BY MONDAY...EXCEPT GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND LEE OF GALAPAGOS 
ISLANDS.

$$
WALLY BARNES