000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAY 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THEN 
EXTENDS FROM 10N100W TO 10N118W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N E OF 102W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS W OF 122W. 

...DISCUSSION...

FRESH NW WINDS CONTINUE W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DUE 
TO PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER MEXICO 
AND HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 30N. STRONG HEATING OVER THE MEXICAN 
PLATEAU WILL MAINTAIN HEAT LOW TROUGH FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE 
SUBTROPICAL MID-PACIFIC RIDGE ALSO REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT FRESH NW 
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH LITTLE VARIATION. 
NW SWELL GENERATED N OF THE AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NE PORTION WITH SEAS TO
12 FT EXPECTED WITHIN 200 NM W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. 
HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL ALSO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH 
E-NE TRADE WINDS W OF 125W BETWEEN 10N AND 25N.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS RELATIVELY LIGHT DUE TO 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 12N113W. S TO SW MONSOON WINDS 
CONTINUE E OF AROUND 118W WITH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ANALYZED NEAR 07N86W EVIDENT IN BOTH SAT IMAGERY AND 
SCATTEROMETER DATA.

SURGE OF LARGE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW LONG PERIOD SWELL IS BUILDING 
SEAS TO 9 FT S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W. ANOTHER SURGE OF S 
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SEAS FURTHER TONIGHT AND SUN TO 
AROUND 12 FT S OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W BY SUN NIGHT. WAVE 
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ENTIRE EASTPAC BASIN GREATER THAN 8 FT IN S 
SWELL OR MIXED S AND NW SWELL BY MONDAY...EXCEPT THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND IMMEDIATELY NE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.

$$
MUNDELL