000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N77W TO 14N90W TO 12N100W TO 09N120W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 77W AND 87W...FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 89W AND 99W...FROM 
07N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 108W...AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 
15W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 131W AND 138W.  

...DISCUSSION...

...IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 26N142W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH 
CLOUD E OF THE CENTER FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 125W-140W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N110W.     

...AT THE SURFACE...
CONVECTION IS IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 
TO 140W WITH MOST CONVECTION E OF 110W. A LOOK AT THE GFS 
PRECIPITABLE WATER MODEL SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE 
AREA AT 34N153W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE TO THE S TIP BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AT 20N110W. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXITS 
ALONG THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA AND THE N BAJA CALIFORNIA. A 
GALE IS N OF THE AREA ALONG THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA. 20-25 KT 
WINDS AND 10-13 FT NW SEA SWELL ARE ALSO MOVING S ALONG THE W 
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. FRESH NE TRADES PERSIST N OF 08N W OF 
125W.

LARGE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW LONG PERIOD SWELL ARE S OF 08N W OF 
95W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THIS SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED WITH A 
SECOND TRAIN OF LARGE LONG PERIOD SW SWELL BY THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD THAT WILL REBUILD SEAS TO 10-11 FT S OF 10N. 

$$
FORMOSA