000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 12N90W TO 10N110W TO 05N130W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 77W AND 86W...FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 89W AND 108W...AND 
FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 131W AND 
140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 26N142W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH 
CLOUD E OF THE CENTER FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 125W-140W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N110W.     

...AT THE SURFACE...
CONVECTION IS IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 
TO 140W. A LOOK AT THE GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER MODEL SHOWS NO 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH NO TROPICAL 
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NW 
OF THE AREA AT 31N142W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE TO THE S TIP 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 20N110W. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
EXITS ALONG THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA AND THE N BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
A GALE IS N OF THE AREA ALONG THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA. 20-25 
KT WINDS AND 10-13 FT NW SEA SWELL ARE ALSO MOVING S ALONG THE W 
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. FRESH NE TRADES PERSIST N OF 08N W OF 
125W.

LARGE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW LONG PERIOD SWELL ARE S OF 08N W OF 
95W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THIS SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED WITH A 
SECOND TRAIN OF LARGE LONG PERIOD SW SWELL BY THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD THAT WILL REBUILD SEAS TO 10-11 FT S OF 10N. 

$$
FORMOSA