000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N78W TO 11N90W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
12N97W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N111W TO 06N120W TO 07N126W 
TO 06N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA IS PUTTING THE SQUEEZE ON HIGH PRES 
RIDGE ALONG 30N ANCHORED BY 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 30N138W. THE COLD 
FRONT WILL SWEEP SE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND BRUSH PAST THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGH PRES FADES AWAY.
WEAKER RIDGE WILL CAUSE BOTH NW WINDS W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
ENE TRADE WINDS S OF THE HIGH ROUGHLY FROM 08N TO 25N W OF 125W 
TO DIMINISH THROUGH WED NIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE
TO AROUND 6-7 FT BY WED OVER MOST OF THE REGION W OF 110W. SWELLS
GENERATED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH NW PART OF THE AREA 
EARLY THU AND HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN ALONG 31N BY THU.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES WILL ALLOW FRESH WINDS TO REDEVELOP W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INCREASE ENE TRADE WINDS W OF 125W.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 11N111W. SCATTEROMETER 
SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS AROUND THE LOW...BUT NOT A WELL ORGANIZED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NOR A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE
SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW CHANCE FOR THE AREA TO INTENSIFY
MUCH BEYOND 20-25 KT...AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24-36 
HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 12N97W HAS LOST ITS 
DEEP CONVECTION AND ANIMATED VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY 
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.

LONG PERIOD S SWELL WILL SWEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FCST 
AREA OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...INCREASING SEAS TO AROUND 8-9 FT S 
OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W BY WED. OTHERWISE SSW MONSOON FLOW TO
CONTINUE NEXT 5-7 DAYS E OF 110W WITH RANDOM FLAREUPS OF STRONG 
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALL ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS.

$$
MUNDELL