000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230306
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS WEST FROM 11N86W TO 13N98W TO 04N119W TO 03N140W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL 
RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N142W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A BROAD 
BUT SHRINKING AREA OF FRESH TRADES S OF THE HIGH PRES FROM 07N 
TO 22N W OF 130W. THE TRADES WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 
WHICH WILL BRUSH PAST THE NORTHERN PORTION TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODERATE TO FRESH N-NW FLOW PERSISTS N OF 26N E OF 128W TO BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE W OF THE BAJA COAST THROUGH
TUE NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS E. 8 TO 11 FT NW TO N SWELL 
GENERATED W OF CALIFORNIA WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION 
GENERALLY N OF 25N AND E OF 125W.

SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUT OFF LOW NEAR 15N142W 
TO 00N116W. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN DIVERGENT FLOW 
ALOFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
124W AND 134W. 

SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA TO 10N90W WHILE AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED 
OVER 15N105W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS 
ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N 
TO 12N ABOUT 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 98W.

MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW MONSOON WINDS CONTINUE S OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. N TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THE ITCZ IS 
CREATING A WEAK WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ 
NEAR 113W. THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT LACKING GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT 
THIS AREA IS NOT CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

$$
MUNDELL