000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 13N97W TO 05N117W TO 03N140W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL 
RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N143W. SCATTEROMETER DATA MORE THAN 12 
HOURS AGO SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADES S OF THE HIGH PRES 
FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 125W. THE TRADES WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AHEAD OF A 
COLD FRONT BRUSHING PAST NORTHERN PORTION TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MODERATE TO FRESH N-NW FLOW PERSISTS N OF 26N E OF 128W TO BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE W OF THE BAJA COAST THROUGH
TUE NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS E. NW TO N SWELL GENERATED W
OF CALIFORNIA 8 TO 11 FT WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION...
MAINLY N OF 25N E OF 125W.

SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUT OFF LOW NEAR 15N142W
TO 00N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING IN DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 124W AND 132W. 

SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA TO 10N90W WHILE AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED 
OVER 15N105W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES 
IS ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
10N TO 12N S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 97W.

FRESH S TO SW MONSOON WINDS PERSIST S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W 
AND 110W. N TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THE ITCZ IS CREATING A WEAK
BUT WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 113W. EXPECT THE
CIRCULATION TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS BUT LACKING SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS AREA IS NOT 
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEEPENING.

$$
MUNDELL