000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220318
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 14N92W TO 08N109W TO 05N120W TO 03N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE 1031 MB HIGH JUST NW OF OUR AREA AT 34N146W IS THE 
MAIN FEATURE TODAY.  A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO ITS 
SOUTHEAST IS FORCING SOME FRESH N WINDS JUST S OF 30N NEAR 120W 
AS WELL AS SOME FRESH NE TRADEWINDS BETWEEN 8N AND 20N W OF 
125W.  SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 12 FT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 
DOMAIN.  LITTLE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THESE WINDS 
AND WAVES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 110W IS ANALYZED BETWEEN 05N AND 09N.  NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS FEATURE.  
THERE IS ALSO A REGION OF FRESH SW WINDS JUST SOUTH OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 98W AND 108W AS SHOWN BY AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS EARLIER 
TODAY. A NEARLY SIMULTANEOUS TOPEX SATELLITE PASS REPORTED ABOUT 
8 FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG 110W.  THE 18Z GFS/WAVEWATCH 
MODEL RUN SUGGESTS THAT A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF 25 KT WINDS AND 
SEAS UP TO 13 FT ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING...DUE TO A SPURIOUS LOW 
IN THE MODEL ALONG THE ITCZ.  THIS THOUGH IS NOT AS OVERBLOWN AS 
THE EARLIER 12Z RUN.  THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST RELIES MORE UPON 
THE ECMWF MODEL...THOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THE SW 
WINDS SHOULD RELAX BELOW OUR 20 KT THRESHOLD WITHIN ABOUT A DAY.

A SURGE OF FRESH S WINDS S OF 5N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W WAS 
OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY VIA A WINDSAT SATELLITE PASS.  THIS IS 
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 5N TO 11N E OF 100W.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THESE WINDS 
AND CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A DAY...THOUGH SOME LONG 
PERIOD S SWELL OF 8 FT WILL PERSIST FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS.

NO GAP WIND EVENTS APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N126W 
TO 16N142W TO 00N128W.  ELSEWHERE...A LARGE HIGH IS CENTERED 
NEAR 18N107W AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVELS.  

$$
LANDSEA