000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N83W TO 12N95W TO 05N115W TO 05N140W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 95W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 40N125W TO 17N145W TO 00N125W. 
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD 30N...BUT 
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY AS SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFT 
E. 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 
35N142W. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE 
WINDS TO THE SOUTH...GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 125W. SHIP 
AND ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW 20 KT N TO NW FLOW OFF THE COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE WEST...AND LOW 
PRES OVER NW MEXICO. SEAS TO 8 FT ARE NOTED OFF BAJA...AND IN 
THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES. NW SWELL TO 10 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE 
WATERS OFF NORTHERN BAJA EARLY NEXT WEEK. FURTHER EAST...SW FLOW 
IS NOTED IN ASCAT AND TAO BUOY DATA S OF THE ITCZ E OF 110W. 
RELATED AREAS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED ALONG 
THE ITCZ FROM 95W TO 110W. CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED OFF THE 
COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA...AND OFF COLOMBIA...DUE 
TO NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN