000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAY 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 09N85W TO 14N98W TO 04N120W TO 04N140W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 99W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NW OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE 
1032 MB CENTERED NEAR 36N144W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER MEXICO IS MAINTAINING 
FRESH NW WINDS N OF 22N WITHIN 210 NM OF BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST 
AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING 
FRESH 20 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 130W AS DEPICTED BY 
THE LATEST WINDSAT PASS. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS 
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY EAST WHERE IT WILL PREVAIL 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN 
THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A BROAD TROUGH PREVAILS WITH THE LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATING SW 
WINDS AROUND 20 KT S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 103W AND 112W. THE 
CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS INDICATES THAT MODERATE TO FRESH SW 
FLOW WILL PERSIST S OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS TO 8 FT 
CAN BE EXPECTED S OF THIS TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 120W IN 
SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW.

$$
AL