000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N78W TO 06N87W TO 12N98W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

ASCAT AND WINDSAT DATA SHOW A BROAD AREA OF 20 KT TRADES FROM 
ROUGHLY 08N TO 20N W OF 130W...SOUTH OF A 1027 MB HIGH PRES AREA 
CENTERED NEAR 33N135W. THE HIGH PRES WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT 
AHEAD OF A SHARP DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 40N130W TO 
10N145W. HOWEVER...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA 
BUILD EASTWARD BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF THE 
AREA...MAINTAINING THE AREA OF TRADES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 
FURTHER EAST...SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE 
TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. ALTIMETER AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 8 TO 9 
FT OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA. FURTHER SOUTH...MODEST 
CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG THE ITCZ...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH. 

CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED BETWEEN 90W 
AND 110W...WHERE SW FLOW IS NOTED BY ASCAT AND THE TAO BUOY 
NETWORK. THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTS DESPITE SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED NEAR 10N110W. A 1630Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED SW WINDS AROUND 
20 KT BETWEEN 105W AND 110W...AND THE CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATES THAT MODERATE TO FRESH SW FLOW WILL PERSIST S OF AN 
ELONGATED TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY EXTEND FROM NEAR 10N110W 
TO JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS TO 8 FT CAN BE 
EXPECTED S OF THIS TROUGH IN BETWEEN 95W AND 120W IN SOUTHERLY 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW.

$$
CHRISTENSEN