000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140350
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 10N104W TO 06N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS W OF 123W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM CUTOFF CYCLONIC VORTEX WELL 
N OF AREA THROUGH 32N117W TO 10N125W THEN TO SMALL ILL DEFINED 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 06N124W.  VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS NW OF 
TROUGH AXIS.  BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CENTERED IN ANTICYCLONIC 
GYRE AT 14N98W HELP SQUEEZE TROPICAL MOISTURE NE INTO SRN HALF 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO.  RIDGE ALSO HELPS ADVECT 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA ALONG MONSOONAL 
TROUGH NEAR 08N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED S OF 
10N E OF 89W. 

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTEND FROM WRN PANAMA ALONG 08N TO LOW 
PRES 1010 MB AT 11N102W.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE E OF 89W 
BUT LACK OF UPLIFT MECHANISMS AND 20-30 KT ELY SHEAR ALOFT IS 
NOT EXACTLY A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT.  MODEL 
GUIDANCE DOWNPLAY LOW PRES AND DISSIPATE IT IN LESS THAN 24 HRS.
  
HEALTHY HIGH PRES 1034 MB WELL N OF 30N REBUILDS AS COLD FRONT 
DISSIPATED AFTER LOSING ALL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  RIDGE EXTEND 
E-SE TO 15N113W PROMPTING WEAKENING FRESH TRADES FROM 11N-17N W 
OF 132W AND PRESSING AGAINST BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST PRODUCING 
FRESH NW BREEZE AND 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL.  GUIDANCE INCREASE 
WINDS ALONG COAST TO STRONG WITHIN 48 HRS AS RIDGE DRIFT E.  

MONSOONAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS JUST W OF PANAMA BRINGING WARM AND 
MOIST FRESH SW FLOW INTO PICTURE LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD.  WITH 
SPIN OF VORTICITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...TROPICAL CYCLONE 
SEASON CAN NOT BE FAR AWAY.  

$$
WALLY BARNES