000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120907
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 8N90W 12N105W 6N130W 2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS FROM 90W-94W AND 
WITHIN 80 NM S OF AXIS FROM 103W-105W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N132W.
AN 85-95 KT JETSTREAM IS SE OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM
20N131W 25N124W ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THROUGH 
NORTHERN MEXICO. BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUD ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE 
JET. TRANSVERSE BANDING ON THE CIRRUS CLOUDS INDICATE POSSIBLE 
UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 13N104W N TO ACROSS BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA E OF 120W. 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ.

HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 113W. THE RIDGE 
COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING NW 20 KT WINDS 
ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST TO DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT.

$$
DGS