000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF PANAMA NEAR 06N78W TO 
1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N91W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N102W TO 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N 
TO 10N E OF 104W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION IS WEAKENING
AS A COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE 
U.S. AS A RESULT TRADE WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 20N W OF 
120W CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. ASCAT PASSES FROM LATE YESTERDAY 
SHOWED MODERATE 10 TO 15 KT TRADE WINDS. ALTIMETRY PASSES FROM 
YESTERDAY CONFIRMED WAVEWATCH INITIALIZATION...SHOWING GENERALLY 
5 TO 7 FT SEAS OVER THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W. THE 
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE RULE IS 20 KT NW WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA GENERATING 7 TO 8 FT SEAS.

THE ITCZ E OF 105W HAS BECOME MODERATELY ACTIVE OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS AS S TO SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DEVELOPING MONSOON 
TROUGH IN THE EQUATORIAL EAST PACIFIC BEGIN TO EXERT AN INFLUENCE
UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CAUSED BY ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 12N95W TO 06N115W. NO 
EVIDENCE YET OF ANY DEVELOPING TROPICAL LOWS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS 
OTHER THAN WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS N AND 
NW PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH NEAR
THE BAJA COAST AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS BELOW 20 KT 
AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WITHIN
12 HOURS...AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH FRI.

$$
MUNDELL