000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102157
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N83W TO O8N113W TO 06N130W TO 02N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S AND 240 NM N OF 
AXIS E OF 102W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N 
OF AXIS FROM 102W TO 110W. 

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N114W TO WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC 
VORTEX AT 23N138W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 240 NM BOTH SIDES 
OF TROUGH AXIS.  JET CORE 85 KT ADVECTS ABUNDANT TROPICAL 
MOISTURE FROM DEEP TROPICS NE TOWARDS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
CENTRAL MEXICO THEN N-NE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE DRY LINE 
PROMPT SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. WELL ANCHORED 
ANTICYCLONIC GYRE AT 08N102W COVERS MOST OF REMAINDER OF BASIN. 
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE UNDER GYRE ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG 
ITCZ AND STATIONARY EMBEDDED LOW PRES 1009 MB AT 07N101W.  NO 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL ORGANIZATION NOTED IN FEATURE BUT UPPER 
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT ADVERSE TO SYSTEM.

...AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1028 MB AT 35N135W AND LOW PRES TROUGH OVER 
CALIFORNIA TIGHTEN GRADIENT TO PROMPT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS 
ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST THROUGH NEXT 18-24 HRS.  HIGH PRES 
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES EFFECTIVELY EASING GRADIENT AND 
DIMINISHING WINDS.  

ITCZ REMAINS ACTIVE E OF 110W AS MOISTURE IS FED FROM LOW PRES 
1006 MB JUST W OF COSTA RICA.  AFOREMENTIONED EMBEDDED LOW PRES 
PROVIDES MECHANICAL UPLIFT A ND UPPER ENVIRONMENT ENHANCES 
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION.

$$
WALLY BARNES