000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101506
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 9N86W 7N100W 6N125W 2N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 320 NM S OF AXIS FROM 88N-92W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 98W-102W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 102W TO 111W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 23N139W WILL REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY. A 75 KT JETSTREAM IS S OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
FROM 16N140W TO 23N123W WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 95-100 KT THE 
JET CONTINUES TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 250 NM S OF THE JET AXIS. UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 32N140W TO
27N128W. THE RIDGE SEPARATES THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE SW 
FROM A TROUGH TO THE NE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND RIDGE 
WILL WEAKEN AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES N OF THE AREA. E OF THE 
RIDGE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED 
OVER NORTHERN UTAH S TO 27N121W. THE 

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 7N109W TO SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ 
FROM  98W-111W.

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 112W. THE RIDGE 
COMBINED WITH LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING NW WINDS 20 
KT ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE LOW AND RIDGE WEAKEN 
WED AND THE WINDS DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT.

A 1006 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 9N87W. 
EARLIER STRONG CONVECTION WITH THE LOW HAS DISSIPATED. SURFACE 
TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 10N100W TO 5N101W. CONVECTION AS 
DESCRIBED IN ITCZ SECTION. ANOTHER TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 10N127W
TO 3N131W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

$$
DGS