000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090306
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 06N78W TO 
05N93W TO 07N109W TO 06N125W TO 07N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1028 MB SURFACE 
HIGH REMAIN STACKED WELL NE OF HAWAII NEAR 36N144W...TO THE WEST 
OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIGGING 
THROUGH THE U.S. WEST COAST. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE 
AREA NEAR 32N119W AND REACHES SW TO A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 24N140W. TO THE SE OF THIS TROUGH AND LOW...W TO 
SW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 
10N AND W OF 105W. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER 
LEVEL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 
14N104W TO 00N115W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ AS DESCRIBED IN THE PRECEDING ITCZ SECTION.

SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHES FROM NEAR 32N142W TO 15N107W. SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
CONTINUE TO REPORT 20 KT NW WINDS ALONG WITH 8 FT SEAS...WHERE 
THE PRES GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND 
TROUGHING NE OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE. A 
SMALL AREA OF 20 KT NE-E TRADES WITH SEAS TO 8 FT EXIST IN THE W 
CENTRAL WATERS FROM 10N TO 14N W OF 130W. THESE WINDS WILL 
SHRINK IN COVERAGE BY 24 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS IN 
THE AREA DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 36 HOURS.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL MIXED SE AND SW SWELL IS OVER THE FAR S CENTRAL 
WATERS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS WILL SHIFT 
WESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN WILL DECAY TO 8 FT BY 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THREE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE TROUGHS. LATEST 
ASCAT PASSES INDICATE THAT WINDS APPEAR TO BE CAPPED AT 10-15 KT 
IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT 
OF THEM ARE ANTICIPATED AS THEY MARCH OFF TO THE W DURING THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
RECENT LAND-BASED OBSERVATIONS AT GUAYMAS MEXICO REPORTED 20 KT 
SW WINDS SO ELECTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THESE WINDS N OF 27N 
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH AS THE TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE SW U.S. EXITS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
BRIEF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 20 KT NE-E PULSES REMAIN 
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW.

$$
LEWITSKY