000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 09N85W TO 
07N93W TO 06N113W TO 07N122W TO 06N131W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 
107W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 1031 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 35N153W WITH 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 15N108W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE 
ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH 20 KT TRADE WINDS AND 
8 FT SEAS FROM 08N TO 13N W OF 128W. THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL 
REMAIN ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...PRESSURES WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NEAR THE ITCZ WHICH WILL 
WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO DIMINISH TRADE WINDS 
BELOW 20 KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO 
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND SURFACE 
RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE TO SUPPORT FRESH 20 KT WINDS OFF THE W 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 
MONDAY MORNING...TO 20 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...AND 
BELOW 20 KT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.  

$$
AL