000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 10N85W TO 
04N105W TO 05N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 05N AND SE OF THE ITCZ AXIS TO 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO 
INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 126W TO 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N112W TO 7N115W...DRIFTING W. 
THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS 
IT SHIFT WESTWARD ALONG THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 300 NM TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE 
TROUGH IS NOTED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 133W/134W FROM 5N TO 11N 
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE TROUGH AND 
THE ITCZ. FURTHER WEST...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE 
PRESENCE OF FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 125W.  
THESE TRADES WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 20N W 
OF 125W THROUGH THE WEEKEND BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE 
AREA AND THE WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. 

MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OFF THE 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SUN DUE TO A TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES NW OF AREA AND A TROUGH ALONG THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PRESENTLY...A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 
NW WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 22N TO 28N E OF 115W TO THE W COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS CONDITION.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS 
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS 
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20 TO 25 KT THERE. IXTEPEC IN OAXACA 
MEXICO IS CURRENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 KT WITH 
GUSTS OF 25 KT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT BY 
MIDDAY SAT.

FURTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 KT THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PRIMARILY AT 
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING DUE TO OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE INFLUENCES.

$$
GR