000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040253
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N77W 
TO 07N90W TO 08N110W TO 04N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 80W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AN 113W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 
07N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W...AND FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 132W AND 
140W.  

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS FILLING NEAR 27N131W WITH A NEGATIVE 
TILT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE TO A BASE NEAR 20N120W. MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THIS AREA AND SPILLING OVER 
MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR S GUATEMALA AT ...15N91W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NW AND CRESTING NEAR 25N107W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 12N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 140W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD SHIFT 
SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVELS 
ALSO APPEARS VERY MOIST S OF PANAMA N OF 02N E OF 83W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...FLOW IS DOMINATED BY A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH 
WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA NEAR 44N131W WITH A MODERATE GRADIENT ON 
THE EQUATORWARD SIDE CAUSING 20 KT NE TRADEWINDS MAINLY W OF 
130W. ACCOMPANYING THIS ARE HIGH SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE 
WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL. IN 24 HOURS...THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND 
A LARGE PORTION OF THE 20 KT NE TRADEWINDS WILL LOCATE W OF 
140W.
   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO 
PULSE THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W.  
WINDS AND SEAS HIGHEST LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOW OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK TONIGHT AND 
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND END THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST 
WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KT WOULD MAKE THIS GAP WIND EVENT THE 
STRONGEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY IN THE PERIOD BEGINNING IN 1999. 

$$
FORMOSA