000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030937
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG  
06N78W TO 06N105W TO 04N117W TO 03N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 126W 
AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS FILLING NEAR 28N131W WITH A TROUGH 
AXIS EXTENDING SE TO A BASE NEAR 06N108W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS NOTED WITHIN APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NE OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS ON 
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 08N TO 140W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 14N95W WITH A RIDGE NW AND CRESTING 
NEAR 30N122W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH 
AND THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE 
DEEP TROPICS S OF 12N BETWEEN 104W AND 112W. THIS SYNOPTIC 
PATTERN SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY ELSEWHERE S OF 17N E OF 
100W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...FLOW IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE HIGH WELL 
NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH A MODERATE GRADIENT ON THE EQUATORWARD 
SIDE CAUSING 20 KT NE TRADEWINDS. ACCOMPANYING THIS ARE HIGH 
SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL. IN 48 
HOURS...THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND A LARGE PORTION OF THE 20 KT NE 
TRADEWINDS WILL LOCATE W OF 140W...HOWEVER A SMALL AREA FROM 13N 
TO 26N W OF 135W WILL CONTINUE AND PROVIDE SEAS TO 8 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NW MEXICO IS 
SUPPORTING NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT N OF 24N. RECENT 
ASCAT DATA FROM A PASS AROUND 03/0452 UTC SHOWED A SMALL SWATH 
OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF 26N111W. ALL MODELS... 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM WHICH IS QUITE LOW...INDICATE A 
PEAK OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FORCING 
MECHANISM WILL WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY AND WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW 
20 KT BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO 
PULSE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W.  
WINDS AND SEAS HIGHEST LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SURGE INTO 
THE NORTHERN GULF AT 20 TO 25 KT AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING 
BUT QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY TUESDAY EVENING. GAP WIND 
EVENT EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY 
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY 
THURSDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THESE 
NORTHERLY WINDS TO REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE BRIEFLY... 
HOWEVER...WHILE AS SIGNIFICANT GALE EVENTS IN THE MONTH OF MAY 
ARE RARE...MINIMAL STORM FORCE EVENTS ARE VERY RARE.

$$
HUFFMAN