000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON MAY 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N77W TO 05N85W TO 08N97W TO 04N1112N TO 06N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W TO 114W AND 122W TO 128W AND WEST OF 134W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS FILLING NEAR 28N131W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO A BASE AT 01N121W. UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED N OF 25N WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR DRY WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED ALONG 32N110W TO 26N108W ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 105W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 10N96W WITH A RIDGE NW AND CRESTING AT 30N124W...WITH THE RIDGE SEPARATING THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH AND THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 11N BETWEEN 104W AND 120W INCLUDING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 15N. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS N MERGING WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE NOTED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING NE ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND FUELING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A THIRD UPPER TROUGH ORIGINATES FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER WESTERN CUBA AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO A BASE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 07N87W. AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND NW FROM OVER COLOMBIA TO OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ FLARED LAST NIGHT JUST TO THE S OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT IS NOW DECREASING. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS NE ACROSS COSTA RICA ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY ELSEWHERE S OF 20N E OF 100W. AT THE LOW LEVELS...FLOW IS DOMINATED BY A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 40N140W WITH A MODERATE GRADIENT ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE CAUSING UP TO 20 KT NE TRADEWINDS. ACCOMPANYING THIS ARE HIGH SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT IN MIXED N SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME AND THE AREA OF 20 KT NE TRADES CONTRACTS NORTHWARD. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PRESENT SOUTH OF 10N NEAR 117W AS SHOWN IN THE 1746Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONVECTION IS IS MINIMAL. IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT A PRE-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT GALE FORCE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FROM 00 TO 03Z...BUT IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT HIGH AS ECMWF...NOGAPS... UKMET...AND NAM ALL INDICATE A PEAK OF ONLY 25 TO 30 KT. FORECAST IS FOR PEAKING AT 30 KT THIS EVENING AND TO DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT EARLY AFTERNOON TUE...AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 20 KT EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SEAS OF 9 FT ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL WATERS IN THE AREA OF THE LONGEST NW FETCH NEAR 26N110W...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT BY LATE TUE NIGHT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 92W. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHEST LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AT 20 TO 25 KT AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING BUT QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GAP WIND EVENT EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THESE NORTHERLY WINDS TO REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE BRIEFLY LATE TUESDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT AS GALE EVENTS IN THE MONTH OF MAY ARE RARE...AND STRONG GALE AND MINIMAL STORM FORCE EVENTS ARE VERY RARE. $$ NELSON/LANDSEA