000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020946 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON MAY 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 09N84W TO 08N99W TO 05N113W TO 06N118W TO 02N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM 11N115W TO 06N118W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 114W AND 119W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N130W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S ALONG 15N124W TO A BASE NEAR 03N114W. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NE PRIMARILY N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 108W AND 130W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N99W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. E OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA TO 04N84W IN THE FAR E PACIFIC. DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF THE ITCZ FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED N OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 33N137W CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED FARTHER NW NEAR 38N145W OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. NE TO E TRADEWINDS OF 20 KT CURRENTLY COVER A LARGE AREA FROM 07N TO 28N W OF 124W PER RECENT ASCAT PASSES. THIS WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA GENERALLY N OF 15N AND W OF 120W THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH REMAINS STRONG AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS RESULTS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY TO NEAR 9 FT. BUT AS THE WINDS INCREASE BY 04/0600 UTC N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W...A NEW BATCH OF NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS TO 10 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL FORECAST WATERS AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND STRENGTHENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE CALIFORNIA COAST. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING BETWEEN A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SUPPORTING NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY EVENING...BUT HAVE HELD OFF FOR NOW...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 25N AND 30N. RECENT EXPERIMENTAL 25 KM COASTAL ASCAT DATA AROUND 02/0514 UTC INDICATED 20 TO 30 KT ALONG 28N. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 9 FT IN THE CENTRAL WATERS AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE EARLY TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIMINISHES. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WINDS ARE GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE INITIATED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW DRAINING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS EVENT TO REACH MINIMAL STORM FORCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MOST CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE AND MERE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE WORKING AGAINST SUCH AN OCCURRENCE. OF NOTE...IN RECORDS KEPT SINCE 1999...ONLY FOUR GALE FORCE WIND EVENTS...WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE...HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MONTH OF MAY. THE LAST GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IN THE AREA WAS FOUR WEEKS AGO ENDING 06 APRIL 2011. $$ HUFFMAN