000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU APR 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ANALYZED FROM 09N84W TO 
11N105W TO 05N115W TO 04N130W TO 00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 105W TO 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 145W OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL 
STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. THIS WILL 
REINFORCE A 1032 MB SURFACE CURRENTLY NEAR 42N147W AS IT SHIFTS 
EASTWARD. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 05Z ALREADY SHOW 20 KT TRADES 
S OF THE ADVANCING HIGH PRES GENERALLY N OF 22N...AND THESE 
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND SPREAD AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS. 
SIMILARLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST WILL 
PERSIST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD 
TO 13 FT IN N SWELL IN THE AREA N OF 24N E OF 122W.

FURTHER EAST...GAP WIND FLOW TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR BY THU NIGHT 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO 
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY LATE 
FRI AS THE AIRMASS TO THE NORTH MODIFIES AND SHIFTS E. FRESH 
TRADES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO ENHANCE FLOW THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE THU...ENDING BY LATE FRI. WEAK LOW 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT ARE PRODUCING 
CLUSTERS OF MODEST CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
CHRISTENSEN