000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280347
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ANALYZED 09N79W TO 
09N95W TO 10N106W TO 05N116W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 107W 
TO 110W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N133W TO 20N120W WITH A 
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS 
MOVING N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT NW WINDS REMAIN OFF THE BAJA 
COAST BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH 
OVER MEXICO. TRADE WIND FLOW IS BARELY REACHING 20 KT IN A SMALL 
AREA SOUTH OF HIGH PRES. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE 
N CENTRAL PACIFIC LATE THU/EARLY FRI. THE RESULTANT INCREASING 
SURFACE PRES GRADIENT N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO 
STRONG FLOW ALONG THE BAJA COAST...AS WELL AS ALLOWING A 
RESURGENCE OF TRADE WIND FLOW MAINLY N OF 20N BY EARLY FRI. 
MEANWHILE NW SWELL RAISING SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 TO 11 FT IS STILL 
PUSHING SWD OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST...BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO 9 
FT BY EARLY FRI THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI THROUGH EARLY 
SUN. 

ELSEWHERE...A PLUME OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER 
THE AREA N OF THE EQUATOR E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH IS N OF 03N E OF 80W TO INLAND 
OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE WITHIN THIS 
PLUME AND ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER SOUTH AMERICA. AN E/W  
SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 06N90W ALONG 
04N96W TO 05N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 
07N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W AS WELL AS FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 101W 
AND 103W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BENEATH THE ABOVE PLUME OF 
MOISTURE TO NEAR 10N116W FURTHER ENHANCING THE ABOVE CONVECTION 
AND THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W AND 
110W. MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC IN THE LOWER LEVELS 
MAINLY E OF 90W. 

$$
PAW