000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ANALYZED 08N77W TO 
09N95W TO 10N105W TO 05N116W TO 03N133W WHERE IT TERMINATES... 
THEN BEGINS ANEW SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 107W TO  
114W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A 
1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 31N137W CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE AS A 
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING 
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 20 
TO 25 KT NW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE BAJA COAST...BETWEEN 
THE WEAKENING HIGH PRES AND A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO. TRADE WIND FLOW IS BARELY REACHING 20 KT IN A 
SMALL AREA SOUTH OF HIGH PRES. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE 
LATER TONIGHT. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE N 
CENTRAL PACIFIC LATE ON THU. THE RESULTANT INCREASING SURFACE 
PRES GRADIENT N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO STRONG 
FLOW ALONG THE BAJA COAST...AS WELL AS ALLOWING A RESURGENCE OF 
TRADE WIND FLOW MAINLY N OF 20N BY LATE THU-EARLY FRI. MEANWHILE 
NW SWELL RAISING SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 TO 11 FT IS STILL PUSHING SWD 
OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 FT BY 
THU BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON FRI. 

ELSEWHERE...A PLUME OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE 
AREA N OF 02N E OF 86W GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION. 
THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE WITHIN THIS PLUME AND 
ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER MEXICO. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM BENEATH THE ABOVE PLUME OF MOISTURE TO NEAR 10N118W 
FURTHER ENHANCING  THE ABOVE CONVECTION AND THE PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. MONSOONAL FLOW 
OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS FURTHER ENHANCING 
THE CONVECTION N OF 02N E OF 86W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 06N90W TO 
03N98W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. 

$$
PAW