000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270932
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED APR 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS FROM 06N78W TO 
05N110W TO 00N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS AND 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
80W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE TIP OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF AN 
UPPER TROUGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN ASSOCIATED 1026 MB 
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N132W IS DISSIPATING...AS A COLD FRONT TIED 
TO THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT NW WINDS ARE STILL IN PLACE OFF THE BAJA 
COAST...BETWEEN THE WEAKENING HIGH PRES AND A PERSISTENT SURFACE 
TROUGH OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. TRADE WIND FLOW IS BARELY REACHING 
20 KT IN SMALL POCKETS TO THE SOUTH OF HIGH PRES...BETWEEN BOTH 
THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL DEAMPLIFY 
THROUGH THU AS A VIGOROUS UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NE PACIFIC 
MOVES INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE N OF 
THE AREA AS A RESULT BY TONIGHT. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BUILD 
EASTWARD FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC LATER ON THU. THE RESULTANT 
INCREASING SURFACE PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO 
STRONG FLOW ALONG THE BAJA COAST...AS WELL AS ALLOW A RESURGENCE 
OF TRADE WIND FLOW MAINLY N OF 20N BY EARLY FRI. MEANWHILE NW 
SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT IS STILL PUSHING S OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA 
COAST...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE TO 9 FT BY THU AS WINDS N OF THE 
AREA DIMINISH. ELSEWHERE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS AIDING MODEST 
CONVECTION TO THE S OF THE ITCZ NEAR THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 90W AND 
100W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
IS ALSO AIDING CLUSTERS OF STRONGER CONVECTION BETWEEN PANAMA 
AND ECUADOR.

$$
CHRISTENSEN