000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE APR 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 008N83W TO 00N100W THEN CONTINUE FROM 08N107W TO 
01N131W TO 02N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 92W TO 97W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS FROM 115W  
TO 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE TEXAS THROUGH 
CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 19N125W TO 17N140W.   
VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT ALONG AND N OF AXIS.  DOWNSTREAM 
ANTICYCLONE...PREVIOUSLY ANCHORED NEAR 107W...CEDED SOME TERRAIN 
AND MOVED E TO 14N95W BUT BROAD RIDGE STILL BLOCKS TROUGH FROM 
MOVING SOUTH.  AT THE SAME TIME WEAK 70 KT SUBTROPICAL JET CORE 
ADVECTS ITCZ CONVECTION DEBRIS NE INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO AND BAY 
OF CAMPECHE.  NW OF TROUGH...BROAD RIDGE WITH ANTICYCLONE AT 
29N131W DOMINATE ENTIRE REGION N OF TROUGH AND SUPPORTS SURFACE 
HIGH PRES 1029 MB AT 32N136W.

AT THE SURFACE...
HEALTHY HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB AT 32N136W SEEMS TO CURTAIL 
MOST VERTICAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WITH DRY STABLE AIR MASS OVER 
LARGE REGION OF BASIN N OF 15N W OF 115W WHILE AT THE SAME TIME 
SQUEEZING PRES GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALE FORCE WINDS 
N OF 30N E OF 123W DIMINISHING BY THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND 10-12 FT SEAS SEEP AS FAR S AS 26N
E OF 127W.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 01N121W TO 09N117W DRIFTING W UNDER 
DIFFLUENT UMBRELLA ALOFT CARRIES SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION BUT WITH NO TROPICAL ORGANIZATION.  MODEL 
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER TROUGH 
CURTAILING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.   

$$
WALLY BARNES