000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON APR 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 09N83W TO 00N96W THEN CONTINUE FROM 08N106W TO 01N130W 
TO 03N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF 
80W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 88W TO 96W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS FROM 105W TO 
121W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 
CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 21N123W TO 16N140W.  VERY 
DRY AIR MASS ALOFT ALONG AXIS AND TO ITS N.  DOWNSTREAM 
ANTICYCLONE...PREVIOUSLY ANCHORED NEAR 107W...CEDED SOME TERRAIN 
AND MOVED E TO 14N97W BUT STILL BLOCKS TROUGH FROM MOVING SOUTH.
AT THE SAME TIME WEAK 70 KT SUBTROPICAL JET CORE ADVECTS ITCZ 
CONVECTION DEBRIS NE INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE.   
NW OF TROUGH...BROAD RIDGE WITH ANTICYCLONE AT 29N134W DOMINATE 
ENTIRE REGION N OF TROUGH AND SUPPORTS SURFACE HIGH PRES 1030 MB 
AT 32N137W.

AT THE SURFACE...
HEALTHY HIGH PRES CENTER 1030 MB AT 32N137W SEEMS TO CURTAIL 
MOST VERTICAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WITH DRY STABLE AIR MASS OVER 
LARGE REGION OF BASIN N OF 15N W OF 115W WHILE AT THE SAME TIME 
SQUEEZING PRES GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALE FORCE WINDS 
N OF 30N E OF 123W DIMINISHING BY THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND 10-12 FT SEAS SEEP AS FAR S AS 26N
E OF 127W.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 02N121W TO 09N116W DRIFTING W UNDER 
DIFFLUENT UMBRELLA ALOFT CARRIES SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION BUT WITH NO TROPICAL ORGANIZATION.  MODEL 
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER TROUGH 
CURTAILING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.   

$$
WALLY BARNES