000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250942
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON APR 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 04N77W TO 08N104W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 104W AND 
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA TO 
20N125W TO 16N140W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL 
LIFT OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 27N141W. AN ASSOCIATED 1025 MB SURFACE 
HIGH CENTERED AT 29N137W WILL SHIFT NE THROUGH TODAY. 04Z ASCAT 
DATA AND A SHIP OBSERVATION SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS 
ALONG THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST...ON THE EAST EDGE OF THE SURFACE 
HIGH. THE HIGH WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY THROUGH MON...ALLOWING THESE 
WINDS TO PERSIST INTO TUE. IN ADDITION...NW SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT 
WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE WATERS E OF 125W TONIGHT THROUGH TUE 
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY...IT WILL BE 
DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO MAINTAIN ONLY 15 TO 20 KT TRADES 
FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 120W. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE NOTED 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 125W DUE TO THE MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE.

E OF 110W...A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG 104W FROM 06N TO 
12N. IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONVERGENT SURFACE LOW W OF THE 
TROUGH...DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
13N100W...AND A WEAK TROUGH TO ITS SW IS MAINTAINING BURST OF 
MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 104W AND 
108W. THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TUE AS THE 
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT WEAKENS. ALTIMETER DATA SHOW GENERALLY 5 TO 6 
FT SEAS THROUGH THE AREA. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 
TUE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN